The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a playoff elimination scenario unlike any in recent memory. For the first time this season, their chances of making the 2025 NFL postseason have dipped below 50%, according to Arrowhead Pride’s analysis published November 29, 2025. What was once a near-certainty — a 10th straight playoff run — now feels like a fight against gravity. The Chiefs sit at 6-5, two games behind division leader Denver Broncos (9-2), and face a gauntlet of AFC West rivals and playoff contenders in their final six games. The math is brutal. Win most, hope others slip. Lose one more, and the postseason could vanish before Christmas.
The Schedule From Hell
It’s not just that the Chiefs have tough games left — it’s who they’re playing, where, and when. Their next game, on Sunday, November 2, 2025, at 4:25 p.m. Eastern Time, takes them to Buffalo to face the Buffalo Bills (7-4). A loss there, and the pressure becomes suffocating. Then comes the real test: back-to-back road trips to Denver (November 16) and Los Angeles (December 14), both against division leaders. The Chargers (7-4) are no pushover, but the Broncos? They’ve won nine of ten. Their defense is stingy. Their quarterback play has improved. And they’ve got home-field advantage in every matchup against Kansas City this season.
Then there’s the holiday gauntlet: Thanksgiving in Arlington, Texas against the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1), followed by a Christmas Day primetime showdown with the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium. Imagine the scene: snow falling, fans on edge, Patrick Mahomes under pressure, and a playoff berth hanging on every snap. It’s the kind of game that defines legacies — or ends them.
Why This Is Different
This isn’t 2022, when the Chiefs stumbled to 9-8 and still made the playoffs on a tiebreaker. This isn’t even 2024, when they survived a late-season scare against the Las Vegas Raiders and rolled through the postseason. This year, the AFC is deeper. The Indianapolis Colts (8-3) are playing like contenders. The Bills and Chargers aren’t just competitive — they’re elite. And the Chiefs’ own offense, once unstoppable, has sputtered. Mahomes has thrown seven interceptions in the last four games. The offensive line has been shredded by injuries. Tyreek Hill is gone. Travis Kelce is 36 and playing through pain.
“They’re not broken,” said former Chiefs linebacker Mike Vrabel on ESPN’s Monday Night Football pregame show. “But they’re not the same team that won three Super Bowls in four years. The margin for error? It’s gone.”
The Math Doesn’t Lie
According to playoffstatus.com’s model as of November 29, 2025, the Chiefs need to win at least four of their remaining six games to have a realistic shot. But here’s the catch: they must also hope for at least two losses from the Bills, Chargers, and Colts — teams with better records and stronger schedules. Even if Kansas City goes 5-1 down the stretch, they still need help. A 6-0 finish? That’s the only path that guarantees a wildcard spot — and even then, tiebreakers favor the Broncos and Chargers.
Of their final six games, four are against AFC West opponents — two against Denver, one each against LA and Las Vegas Raiders (2-9). Winning all four? Possible. Probable? Not even close. The Broncos have beaten Kansas City by double digits in both meetings this year. The Chargers have held Mahomes to 187 passing yards in their last two matchups.
What’s at Stake
Missing the playoffs wouldn’t just be a disappointment — it would be a seismic shift. Mahomes, 29, is entering his prime. Andy Reid, 66, is still one of the best coaches alive. But this is the NFL. Momentum matters. Perception matters. A missed postseason could trigger questions about roster construction, coaching adjustments, and whether the dynasty’s window is closing — not with a bang, but with a whimper.
And for fans? The pain is real. Arrowhead Stadium hasn’t hosted a non-playoff season since 2017. That’s eight years of consistent excellence. Now, for the first time in nearly a decade, people are asking: Is this the year it ends?
What’s Next?
The next 37 days will define the Chiefs’ legacy in the 2020s. If they win out — including beating Denver on Christmas — they’ll likely sneak in as the sixth seed. If they lose two of their final three divisional games? The postseason could be over before the New Year. The league’s official 2025 NFL Playoff Picture, updated daily on NFL.com, will keep track. But the real story? It’s being written in the locker room, in the film room, and in the quiet moments between snaps when Mahomes looks up at the scoreboard and knows: this isn’t just another game. It’s survival.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely are the Chiefs to make the playoffs now?
As of November 29, 2025, playoffstatus.com gives the Chiefs a 47% chance of qualifying — the first time this season they’ve been below 50%. To get in, they need at least four wins in their final six games and help from the Bills, Chargers, and Colts losing at least twice. A 6-0 finish would nearly guarantee a spot, but even a 5-1 record might not be enough without upsets.
Why is the AFC West so tough this year?
The Broncos (9-2) are playing their best football since 2015, with a top-5 defense and improved QB play. The Chargers (7-4) have stabilized after early-season chaos, and the Raiders, while 2-9, have kept games close against Kansas City. The Chiefs have lost both matchups to Denver and are 0-2 against LA this season — meaning they’re already behind in the tiebreaker race.
What’s the impact if the Chiefs miss the playoffs?
It would end their 10-year playoff streak — the longest active run in the NFL. More importantly, it could trigger roster changes. Free agents like Trent McDuffie or Juan Thornhill might seek new teams. Contract extensions for Mahomes or Kelce could be delayed. And for a franchise built on consistency, a missed postseason could spark a reevaluation of the entire organizational approach.
When is the last chance for the Chiefs to clinch?
The regular season ends January 4, 2026. But realistically, the window closes after the December 25 game against Denver. If the Chiefs lose that Christmas Eve matchup — especially at home — their playoff hopes will be mathematically eliminated by the final week. A win there keeps them alive, but they’d still need help from the Bills or Colts.
Has any team with a 6-5 record made the playoffs after a similar schedule?
Yes — the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 6-5 on November 29 and made the playoffs, winning Super Bowl LV. But their schedule was far less brutal: only one game against a team with a winning record in their final six. The Chiefs’ path is tougher. No team since 2015 has made the playoffs after facing four divisional opponents in their final six games with two of them being 9-2 or better.
Who holds the tiebreaker if the Chiefs and Broncos finish tied?
The Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning both games this season — 24-17 in Kansas City and 31-14 in Denver. That means even if both teams finish 10-7, Denver gets the AFC West title and the Chiefs would need to be the sixth seed. But if Denver wins the division, the Chiefs would need to finish with at least 10 wins to have a shot at a wildcard — and they’re not likely to get there without winning all their remaining games.
